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INTERVIEW: Symbian chief on why size matters
Symbian Foundation head Lee Williams argues US-based analysts profoundly misrepresent the size and significance of the Symbian mobile operating system, which is still the biggest in the world.
Do you accept the results of a recent Gartner survey that says Symbian's market share is declining?
No. The Gartner reports are flawed from the standpoint that they don't include the Symbian feature phone sales. From our perspective, the smartphone segment overall is growing at north of 20 points as an annual growth rate. We're growing close to or just under 20 points, year-over-year. We're not growing as fast as the overall market segment that's defined by Gartner and secondarily we're not growing as fast as we have in years past, but still very much growing in terms of volume and value share globally. You can firmly put Symbian operating system devices in the category of between 50% and 70% market share, depending on how you define that segment.
This is just one man's view, but I don't think it's fair to call what some of the US press or analysts do as research. More like a cursory glance at available figures. In Asia about 50% or more of the smartphone space are Symbian-based products, and growing. This is primarily through DoCoMo and their network. If you look at Europe, again Symbian dominates somewhere in that area of 50% to 70% in terms of devices shipped that are feature or smartphones. If you look at North America, it's 10%. I think we're poised to gain some share in that space, but as you can see by the numbers we're a very small player in that particular region, versus some of the others that are there.
Why would press and analysts misrepresent the size of Symbian?
Analysts or otherwise are trying to write a sensationalist headline, and there's some really good low-hanging fruit there. One, you could write about an operating system war, that seems to be popular. Two, you can write about market share figures and so forth in a space where there's a couple of really popular products like the iPhone. What it doesn't include is that the features that people have come to know as smartphone features or functionality are actually migrating down on almost any kind of mobile right now. And that's where you see people taking a Symbian system down into that higher volume space.
Is it true that Symbian owners use the mobile web less than iPhone or Android users?
The only figures I've seen that actually support that statement are North American alone. When I've looked at the global figures, they show that Symbian users as much or more so are the active internet users on mobile. We've done statistically accurate samples [that show] that 60% of users with Symbian products do use the internet as a part of that experience. And that's pretty high.
What I think is also overlooked occasionally is that more digital cameras have been shipped with Symbian systems than any other piece of software on the planet. More have shipped with a music playing capability for digital music content listening and distribution than iPods. The reason for that of course is they've been sitting in these feature phone and smartphone-based products that do all of those things at once.
If you look at North America alone and say who's browsing to the New York Times site or the top 10 sites, and then look at the popularity of the iPhone and the RIM and the Windows Mobile stuff there, it's clear to draw a conclusion that Symbian doesn't show as much. If you look at the figures globally you see that the majority of our users are actually using the internet.
Can the mobile industry support all the mobile operating systems on the market today or will there be some kind of shake-out?
I don't think the focus should be on operating systems. I think it should be on ecosystems, and that's very different. An operating system and a platform is often at the heart of an ecosystem but I think you have to hop up a level into the dynamics of, and strengths of, the ecosystem to really understand what we're comparing here. And if you do, I think you have in this space room for five to seven ecosystem plays. You'll have anything from closed-wall concepts and systems like RIM or Apple or Windows Mobile, to semi-open initiatives where the code's thrown over the wall, like in the case of an Android or LiMo. Then you'll have fully open, where you may have the Mocos of the world and Linux Foundation and you will certainly have the Symbian ecosystem and solution.
Does this mean you reject the view that the mobile phone space will mimic the PC market of the 90s?
I like the analogy, but I think it's a completely flawed assumption. Keep in mind the PC era of the 90s had different market conditions. It was one particular market segment, IT, and what it was doing was eating the office systems markets. What is happening in mobile is we have already converged IT, internet, telecoms and now entertainment. All of these things have converged at once going against a completely common consumer experience or value proposition. It is tenfold and growing the size of any market that existed in that IT space. It is also a global marketplace unlike that IT and PC era of the 90s and, more than that, I don't think any one dominant player from a technology perspective like a Microsoft can exist. It's the right metaphor or analogy to use, but I think it's flawed that one operating system, platform or ecosystem will dominate. I think it's going to be the opposite.
Which rival ecosystems are your key competitors?
Google, if they can get that one off the ground. They have some momentum now and if they don't plateau early there's the chance that ecosystem will become a key competitor for us. A secondary one is Apple because they're delivering a value proposition from third-party application providers and also creating some good objects of desire in the smartphone space. Then the third one I would throw up there is something to do with LiMo. If the LiMo initiative can get some products in the marketplace, and they can find ways to deal with the fragmentation issues, I think that ecosystem will come on strong as well.
What is the future for Symbian?
One, we'll continue to grow, which I think is very positive considering how long we've been around. You'll also see us be used in what I call some surprising configurations. It wouldn't shock me to see someone go ahead and check in a Linux-type kernel. It wouldn't shock me to see that we're able to collaborate with the other Linux-based initiatives that are out there. Lastly you'll see us grow in the area of the type of rich, internet service capabilities. Things you can only experience on a PC today, I think you'll see come to our platform. You may have noticed our Skype announcements over the last few days. You'll also see us go in the direction of other types of services like augmented reality, meta-data clouds for image sharing, near real-time communications and social networking for users.
